Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election

Countdown to the Maine Event: 50 Days

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Fifty days away from the 2012 presidential election, who will be the eventual winner of Maine’s four electoral votes? There are a few key factors to consider:

The first thing to understand about Maine’s presence in the Electoral College is that it splits its four electoral votes. Two go to the winner of the popular vote, and one each of the remaining two votes go to the popular vote winner in each Congressional district. So, while Maine may seem to be leaning pretty strongly to the left at this point, anything could happen with single votes up for grabs. Romney hopes to get at least one vote from the Pine Tree State this year.

Let’s take a look at the recent political state of affairs in Maine. In the past five presidential elections, Democrats have won here. Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud, both Democrats, currently hold the state’s seats in the House of Representatives. What’s really getting interesting is the race for the Senate where Independent candidate and former Maine governor Angus King is way ahead of the Democratic and Republican candidates in the polls.

So which way will our Northeastern-most friends lean this year? Right now, it’s looking like three of the four votes are very likely Democratic, and the other is leaning that way as well. Romney will have to channel his Northeastern roots to connect with Maine voters, but will it be enough to sway the recently-Democratic state? We’ll find out in 50 days.

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