Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election

Destination: Demographics

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Politicos love to speculate how ‘group voters’ will vote. Whether is be the women vote, the latino vote, the black vote, or the young vote, it seems as if every ‘vote’ is THE critical vote. But not only are there fallacies to this logic, Election 2012 may be about another group vote entirely: the Veterans.

According to Politico, Veterans have been polling in favor of Romney over Obama. After the eleventh anniversary of September 11, and a spike in American patriotism, it looks as if Veterans across the country, especially within the battle ground states, are abandoning camp Obama.

“They’re a high turn-out demographic and concentrated in battleground states, with nearly 1 million each in North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, and 1.6 million in Florida,” says DARREN SAMUELSOHN, Politico contributor. Unlike a handful of other “voter groups” the Veteran population produces high voter turnout. According to the survey mentioned in the politico article, Romney’s military veteran advantage is over 10% points.

Florida is home to a heavy Veteran population, 7%,  and retirement population, 17%. Voter turnout within this voter group is statistically higher than a handful of other groups that have received greater coverage by the media. It would be a mistake for either candidate to undermine the influence of this voter group.

The Demographics of the demographics: 

Who is a Veteran and who is a member of the American Military?

  • Hispanics and African Americans “minorities” compose nearly 30% of the active DoD duty composition
  • 44% of active members are 25 years or younger
  • Middle Class: Median income of $41,000
  • 98% have high school degrees

Where are the Veterans?

– Top Ten Military Populated States: California, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, Georgia, Ohio, Virginia, Illinois, North Carolina…

– Five of the ten above are considered battle ground states… 

So what does this mean for Obama and Romney?

Historically speaking military members both active and veterans have predominately voted republican in elections’ past. However, looking at the demographics of this voter group- young, minority, middle class Americans located in coastal states – one would think this was the democratic coalition! Obama has an opportunity to hone in on this, yet he hasn’t and his recent attempts to do so have been less than successful.

For more demographic information follow the state-by-state demographic polls under the battle ground state of your choosing.
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One thought on “Destination: Demographics

  1. Pingback: Destination: Demographics | ATS

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