The Indiana Senate Race is consistently cited as one of the top races to watch in 2012. In the last polls from August, Mourdock was leading Donnelly by 2 points in the polls, within the margin of error. In a new poll, Donnelly has taken a 2 point lead over Mourdock, but that lead is still within the margin of error.
Comparing both of these polls, the race is in a statistical dead heat. Both sides have been spending massive amounts of money on the race to pull off a win on Election Day. This race is making it difficult for the Republicans who hope to take control of the Senate this November. Why is this race so close?
The primary for the Republicans was extremely divisive between Mourdock and Senator Richard Lugar. Although Mourdock was the more “conservative” candidate, appealing to the Republican base, many former Lugar supporters are refusing to endorse Mourdock in the general election. If these Republicans supported Mourdock, he would have no problem winning against Donnelly. Without the voters of former Lugar supporters, Mourdock will have a tough time winning the race.
Furthermore, as we continue to get closer to Election Day, ads in this race are becoming intense and ugly. Money has become a major player in this race, with outside PAC’s using money to run ads on behalf of both candidates. These ads are increasingly more negative, and they will only get worse within the coming weeks.
With less than a month to go, this will be a very important race to keep an eye on. It is difficult to obtain accurate poll numbers for this race because Indiana bans robocalls, which most polling organizations use. Without accurate polls, the race is truly a toss-up, and we will have to wait until Election Day to see who which party wins control of Indiana’s Senate seat.