Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election

AZ: Romney Surges In Battleground States, but Losing AZ

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Governor Romney, who has held a significant lead in Arizona during the last two months, is starting to lose ground in this Republican leaning state. Arizona, home of the former presidential candidate John McCain (R), was considered untouchable by the Obama campaign during the 2008 presidential election. However, now Arizona might be in play for the Obama campaign.

President Obama continues to struggle to regain his long lasting lead among voters which he held prior to the first presidential debate. Since the first presidential debate and vice presidential, the Obama campaign has been losing ground in many key states like Ohio and Florida. Governor Romney shifted some blue states like Pennsylvania to now key battlegrounds states.

Arizona, on the other hand, has felt the opposite effect of the Romney campaign surge. CNN says a new poll of likely Arizona voters shows the race for the White House is a close contest now. President Obama stands at 44% while Governor Romney stands at 42% in the Rocky Mountain poll released Saturday. The margin is within the poll’s sampling error. The Rocky Mountain poll included 523 registered voters reached by phone between October 4 and 10, after the first presidential debate.

However, Governor Romney still leads in Arizona’s national polling surveys such as the Real Clear Politics poll. RCP poll shows Romney leading Obama by 48.3% to 43%. Still Governor Romney is losing ground in this Republican stronghold. The RCP graph below suggest that Governor Romney has lost his significant lead in Arizona, which started  in October despite his outstanding debate performance.

Real Clear Politic’s poll of the Arizona Presidential Race

Since 1952, the state has gone to a Republican candidate in every presidential race except 1996. President Bill Clinton won the state that year by 47% to 44% over Bob Dole.

Keep checking Destination 270 for all your election updates and stories.


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