Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election

20 days… Pennsylvania Review

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Yes Pennsylvania is still in play… And yes, it still is a swing state. President Barack Obama leads Gov. Romney by  four points, 50 percent to 46 percent after leading by 12 points three weeks ago. This puts the state in the toss-up category.

What is the breakdown?

Well the President still gets positive reviews with 52 percent viewing him favorably and 45 percent unfavorably.

In contrast, Gov. Romney is viewed favorably by 46 percent with 44 percent unfavorably.

Romney is cloying the gap because he has gathered support from white Catholics who support him 56 percent to 43 percent for obama.

At the same time, Obama is winning the state because women back him 57 percent to 39 percent.

Want to read more on this breakdown? Click Here.

Real clear politics has Obama winning 49.7% to Romney 44.7% with a spread of 5 points. Want to see the data? Click Here

Here is a quick video to summarize the race between the two and current poll data – Video.

So why is this election so important? Data taken from a Franklin and Marshall’s Center for Politics and Public Affairs shows us this…

Well the Presidential elections in Pennsylvania are usually competitive. In ten elections since 1960, the margin of victory for the winning candidate averaged 9.4 percent (With two exceptions for 1964 Lyndon Johnson defeating Barry Goldwater in the state by 30 percentage points and Richard Nixon defeating George McGovern by 20 percentage points in 1972).

With this upcoming election and all the polling that has taken place, we are to expect the election to be a close one. Well this is where things get interesting. In pennsylvania the closest race occurred in 1988 with George Bush hardly defeating Michael Dukakis by 2.3 percentage points.

So this brings us to the final question, who is going to take Pennsylvania?

Well with both candidates backing down and focusing on other swing states, Pennsylvania has been left out.  Paul Ryan said “we can get a rally up in a day, I think they’re going to come in the end.”

Neither member of the DEmocratic ticket, President Barack Obama or Vice President Joe Biden, have any plans to make a campaign trip to Pennsylvania.

Both parties have pulled the majority of retie television time and have left the state in the 5 point range. The Romney campaign has not had a television ad since April.

So what will happen? I believe with the lack of effort of both parties, and the already close race that is upon Pennsylvania, Romney will take those Electoral votes. The people of Pennsylvania will want to see change. With the economy struggling (resulting from the efforts of Bush or Obama…) the people of cities such as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia will want to see improvement and putting the role of President into a Business man might be the way to make that happen.

With the lack of effort in the state it will be difficult to predict now the change that is to come. Stay tuned to Destination 270 for up to date coverage on the election process state by state!

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