In the last 60 years a Democratic Candidate for President has not won the Presidency without having more than 53% of the women vote. Since 1976, the ‘gender gap’ has been steadily level. However, it appears as if this election is an election unpredicted by historical trends, and will perhaps mark a new trend amongst female voters.
In recent years, Kerry and Gore both lost to Bush while still having the majority of the women vote. However, that majority was not enough; simply having a majority of the women is not enough due to the facts about women voters in general.
- Women vote at a higher rate than man, averaging almost 6%
- There are more women than men within the VAP (Voting Age Population)
- Unemployment among women has increased one percentage point from 7% to 8% from the time Obama took office in 2009 to today
So what does this mean? This means that IF the pew poll is true-
– and among likely voters within the battle ground states women are likely to vote for Romney by just 1 or 2 percentage points over Obama, then, arithmetically speaking, that 1-2% would put Romney over 50% nationally, concluding a Romney victory.