Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election

A Predicted Romney Win: from the Eyes of Females

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In the last 60 years a Democratic Candidate for President has not won the Presidency without having more than 53% of the women vote. Since 1976, the ‘gender gap’ has been steadily level. However, it appears as if this election is an election unpredicted by historical trends, and will perhaps mark a new trend amongst female voters.

In recent years, Kerry and Gore both lost to Bush while still having the majority of the women vote. However, that majority was not enough; simply having a majority of the women is not enough due to the facts about women voters in general.

ImageKey facts about women voters:

  • Women vote at a higher rate than man, averaging almost 6%
  • There are more women than men within the VAP (Voting Age Population)
  • Unemployment among women has increased one percentage point from 7% to 8% from the time Obama took office in 2009 to today

Image

ImageYet, women are polling even in swing states, and Obama has only a 52% lead throughout the country:

So what does this mean? This means that IF the pew poll is true-

In September, just 42% viewed Romney favorably, while 60% had positive impressions of Obama. Today, about half view each of the candidates favorably (51% Obama, 48% Romney)

– and among likely voters within the battle ground states women are likely to vote for Romney by just 1 or 2 percentage points over Obama, then, arithmetically speaking, that 1-2% would put Romney over 50% nationally, concluding a Romney victory.

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One thought on “A Predicted Romney Win: from the Eyes of Females

  1. Pingback: Destination 270′s Electoral College Map predicts a Romney Win. « Destination 270

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