Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election

Destination 270’s Electoral College Map Predicts a Romney Win.

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Mitt Romney- 277 Barack Obama- 261

After two national conventions, two Presidential debates, continued polling analysis and tireless campaign research this is the Electoral College Prediction from our class with 20 days to go:

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Each battle ground state writer contributed to an elaborate class discussion and presented facts, polls and opinion. While each battle ground state writer has spent the last forty days thoroughly analyzing their state, we have all been looking at this election from multiple perspectives. We’ve grasped an in-depth understanding of causes and effects of every little and large political happening. According to our model, Romney will lose Ohio yet win the election, which is unpresidented by all previous Republican Presidential Candidates who won have the Presidency.

Our map is similar to the University of Colorado projection, which uses economic factors as a basis of state-by state analysis, with the exception of Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Ohio going to Romney. We believe the autoworker’s industry and heavy union presence within Michigan and Ohio will give Obama an advantage Romney will not be able to over come. However, despite recent unemployment figures, both Virginia and North Carolina will swing for Romney. We attributed Romney’s victory in Virginia to the increased women population and energy issues, specifically the struggling coal industry. Romney’s campaign announces last week that they were satisfied with the campaigning efforts already set in place in North Carolina and Romney himself would not be returning. The estimated 15% lead is sufficient enough for the candidate himself, and for our prediction as well.

After the first debate, Romney saw a bounce of over 7 percentage point in Florida. While that bounce has dwindled, we have concluded that Florida will produce a Romney victory as well. Obama is polling at 51% within the female vote, and losing by ten points among the senior vote. Although it should be noted that neither candidate is viewed predominately favorably with the issue of medicare. 54% of Florida seniors view Obama’s healthcare plan as detrimental to medicare, and 40% do not believe Romney’s plan will be much better.

Lastly, Romney’s predicted victory in Pennsylvania was perhaps the most contested within our class. Both candidates have pulled out most campaigning efforts. Romney hasn’t aired a television ad since April, and neither Obama nor Biden has made plans to visit the state between now and November 6th. So why a Romney win? White Catholics support Romney 56% to 43% for Obama. Moreover, polling has taken place in college towns, outside of suburban areas and major cities. Secondly, within the major cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburg unemployment has surged and support for Obama has followed suit.

After every battle ground state was presented and decided upon, I gave our class my prediction of the election as a whole. I predicted that the recent development within the female vote, the analysis of the “Keys to the White House” and post debate polling bounces that Romney would win the popular vote on November 6th. With my prediction of the popular vote coupled with the electoral college map prediction of the most heavily contested battle ground states, we the writers of destination270 predict a Romney Ryan Presidential victory in just 15 days.

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One thought on “Destination 270’s Electoral College Map Predicts a Romney Win.

  1. While I “mostly” agree with your map, I believe Romney will win Ohio and Iowa. Obama will win Pennsylvania by a small margin. The key to the election will be Pennsylvania regardless of who wins. If it is really tight in Pennsylvania then Romney will win in a landslide…possibly taking Michigan and Wisconsin as well.

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