Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election

The Last Stand:The Final Debate and The Fight for Votes

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Well this is it folks- it’s time for the final Presidential debate and tonight’s winner could cement (Romney) or retake (Obama) the lead in the race to the White House.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll, released today, shows both candidates at a virtual tie, with both carrying 46% of the electorate ahead of today’s debate. With his recent debate performances, Romney has begun to close the small gap remaining between him and the President and is beginning to take the lead according to some recent polls.

With polls this tight, it is time for both candidates to fight harder than ever to gain those undecided votes. With less than 5% between them, neither can afford to lose ground with these voters who hold the outcome of the election squarely in their hand.

So what, if anything, will this debate change in such a tight race?

According to Ipsos pollster Julia Clark, tonight’s debate will change, well..nothing.

“The debate is unlikely to change the dynamics of the race substantially, unless Romney or Obama make a major mistake.”

Tonight is both candidate’s last chance to appeal to the American public and earn their vote. And barring a catastrophic mistake a la Herman Cain or Rick Perry, polls after tonight’s debate will most likely show similar results, as they probably will until election day.

“I think that this is how we’re going to see the numbers looking for the next two weeks. It’s just very close,” Clark said.

Since tonight’s debate will be in Boca Raton, Florida, no doubt Floridians, decided and undecided will tune in. At the very least, it is important that either candidate gains in Florida. If recent poll numbers persist, with Romney leading Obama a slight 49% to 48%, such a small difference on election day could spell a repeat of 2000’s Florida recount.

And no one wants to see that happen again.

One thought on “The Last Stand:The Final Debate and The Fight for Votes

  1. We love your blog! I live in California now but am from Dallas. My familly going back generations are SMU grads! :). Keep up the awesome work.

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