Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election

Is Wisconsin the New Ohio?

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In 2000, Florida was the decisive state in the Electoral College. In 2004, Ohio was the battleground state. This year, it may be Wisconsin that is the decider of this election between President Obama and Romney.

Rasmussen Reports released it’s latest Wisconsin Presidential poll on November 1. Their survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds each candidate receiving 49% support while only 2% remain undecided. In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points, but now the state is in  a tie.

In an interesting article by Scott Rasmussen, he depicts the specific ways that will give Romney the win over the Electoral College- each involve him winning Wisconsin. On election night, the first places to watch will be Virginia and Florida. If Romney wins there, watch Ohio. If the president wins Ohio, Wisconsin is likely to be the decisive battleground state of Election 2012.

Voters in the state trust Romney more than the president by just two points – 50% to 48% – when it comes to handling the economy. Obama has a three-point edge in voter trust – 50% to 47% – in the area of energy policy and leads by one – 49% to 48% – when it comes to national security. Among voters nationwide, Romney leads by seven on the economy, and the two are nearly tied in the other areas.

Republicans are making a comeback in the state. Romney continued to trail Obama in all polls until 2 weeks ago. And former Governor Tommy Thompson leads Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin 48% to 47% in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race.


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