Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election

Final Presidential Prediction: Who Will Win Wisconsin?

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As we are hours away from the election, it’s time to make our final predictions as to who will be the winner of each battleground state. So much has happened in Wisconsin during this election: Republican Governor Scott Walker winning the recall in June, Wisconsin-native Paul Ryan becoming the vice presidential candidate, and a voting history that heavily favors the democratic candidates.

Republicans have thought that the events listed above would create enough momentum to win them this battleground state: but I believe this is incorrect. Although Romney has managed to narrow the gap on the polls, in the majority of the polls he has never surpassed Obama. While the race may be tight here, I believe that it is Obama that will come out with the “W” here.

These events that the Republicans were relying on did not help them win the majority for this state. We discussed in our politics class how people believe politicians have the right to serve their full term (unless of course, they do something terribly wrong). Yes, Gov. Walker was kept in office, but most likely because his constituents didn’t believe he had the right to have his term cut short. And as I’ve mentioned in a previous post, many Wisconsinites do not know him. He represents such a small portion of Wisconsin’s population.

 

As shown above, Nate Silver has Wisconsin labeled “Safe Obama.” And RealClearPolitics has Obama leading by 4.2 points. You can see from their predictions that Romney has never surpassed Obama in the polls in this state.

However, POLITICO released an article today says that conservative activists used the recall election in June to prepare for this tight race. FreedomWorks, American Majority and Americans for Prosperity say that they‘ve geared up the key pieces of a grassroots operation that can take on unions at their own game: they are better organized, they’ve spent bigger on ground game prep than conservatives typically do and they’ve energized a base of volunteers. And Rasmussen Reports‘ latest poll shows the President and Romney tied at 49% each. But, I personally believe that Obama is going to win Wisconsin.

This last weekend Obama campaigned in Wisconsin and brought with him celebrities Katy Perry, Bruce Springsteen, and Jay-Z. This, accompanied with the union vote, will have Obama take Wisconsin.

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