Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election

Superstition Predicts a Romney Win

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With the election now within the final countdown, it appears as if the internet has been inundated with superstition. Since any legitimate prediction with 21 hours to go would almost be fruitless, why not delve into the world of inexplicable phenomena.

In 1845 Congress agreed upon standardizing election day within the United States. It would be the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Therefore the Presidential Election can be held anywhere between November 2 to the 8th. Tomorrow will be November 6th.
Republicans have won every Presidential Election held on November 6th. 

Arguably three of the most influential Republican Presidents won election on the 6th. Moreover these elections took place after a significant event or swing in public opinion.

On November 6th, 1860 the election of Abraham Lincoln took place during the impending threat of succession and at the brink of a Civil War.

On November 6th, 1956, Dwight Eisenhower won the Presidency after a gridlock of Democratic Administrations during the Great Depression and the second world war.

On November 6th, 1984 Ronald Reagan won re-election over Walter Mondale with an electoral vote landslide of 525 to 13 and a population vote of 59%.

Tomorrow is November 6th, 2012. The United States is internally divided, and with only hours away until polls open, it’s clear that no one knows who the next President will be. Many of us here at Destination 270 have already commented on that fact. If Romney were to win tomorrow, it would be historic among similar lines of the previous Republican victories.
How so? Beating an incumbent in the first place is an electoral feat in and of itself. Secondly, after Barack Obama’s electoral sweep of 2008, to see an additional swing nationally would demonstrate a change in the national political economy. Lastly, a Romney win would re-enforce the importance of unemployment and the state of the economy in determining the success of a President’s reelection. As we have all cited multiple times, an incumbent president cannot win selection, nor can the incumbent party win election with unemployment above 8% within the months of the prime election season.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring. But if you’re superstitious or just enjoy the kicks that come from political junkies and obsessive historians alike, then hopefully you found this somewhat insightful.


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