Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election

Last Prediction For Iowa

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With only hours left until voting closes, there’s only time for one last prediction as to who will take Iowa’s electoral votes and seats in congress. In a state this close, one can only gather as much data as possible, look for trends, study polls, and then toss all that information aside and flip a coin.

With that in mind, here are my predictions for the Hawkeye state:

Congressional Races:

District 1: Ben Lange (R)

Despite losing to Incumbent Bruce Braley once before. Lange has shown impressive momentum leading up to these final days, especially in their recent debate last week. I believe Iowa is ripe for at least one upset, and I’m putting money on the first district.

District 2: Dave Loebsack (D)

This should be an easy win for Loebsack. He has had a solid advantage throughout the race. I don’t see that changing.

District 3: Tom Latham (R)

Latham has an edge in registration and fundraising, which should carry into tonight. Signs point to a Latham victory in this double-incumbent battle with Leonard Boswell.

District 4: Steve King (R)

The fact is, King has a strong base in Iowa despite the redistricting. Although it would make for a historical moment for Iowa if Christie Vilsack won, I don’t see her being able to take the high ground on an incumbent like King in a district like this.

Presidential Race: Barack Obama

Though Iowa has seen plenty of ups and downs in polls and opinions, Obama has consistently seen favorable numbers in the state that launched him into the office in 2008.

At no point in this election has he ever been behind Romney, though he has come very close. And, as I mentioned before, Iowa is ripe for an upset. The evangelical vote could come out strong while the youth vote could wane. If that happens the victory will go to Romney. However, it is unlikely that those two factors will make a significant enough difference to tip the state.

As I said before, flip a few coins and your guesses will be as valid as anyone’s in Iowa. The only thing we can be sure of is that this will be an election to remember.


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