Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election

Exit Polls show Obama’s Constituency Larger than Ever.

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President Obama won re-election last night with less votes than John McCain received in 2008. That said, his victory over Mitt Romney showcased a significant increase in the size of the Democratic coalition. According to the Associated Press Exit polls, Obama captured much of the same vote cohorts that he had in 2008; some to even larger degrees.

The Key Demographics: 

Sex: As my previous post pointed out, no Democratic Candidate has won the Presidency without capturing over 54% of the female vote nationally. According to AP exit Poll, Obama received 55% of the female vote, and Mitt Romney received only a slight majority of the male vote. Given the higher turnout among women and the greater population of women to men, just a few percentage points translate into millions of votes. 

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Income: As expected, those within the poorest bracket voted most strongly for Obama. Yet, as income increased, only a small increase in support for Romney accompanied. Income is becoming less of a factor in determining partisan preferences among voters relative to a handful of other demographics. Image

Population area:  if you were to look at the electoral college map of this election you would see a lot more red than blue. This would also occur if you broke down state-by-state and looked at the congressional districts. Again, red prevails. Why? Because in the heavily populated areas of the country reside the strongest constituencies most loyal to the democratic coalition: young, minority, and poor. Texas for example, perhaps the quintessential red state, is red except in the Houston County, Dallas County, and San Antonio County areas. (Also the southern bordering towns near Mexico.

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Race: As expected, Obama did significantly better amongst minorities. However, there are a few insights. Amongst African Americans Obama did almost as well as he did in 08. He increased his advantage amongst Latinos; especially when compared to Bush’s LA vote in 2000. 

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Education: Obama and Romney nearly split the vote amongst some college and college graduates. The post graduate constituency has historically aligned with the Democratic party. This is also correlated to geography. The most highly educated American reside within the Ideopolis centers of the Country. Austin, the Research Triangle, and Silicon Valley are good examples of Ideoloplises.  
 
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