Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election


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2016 Presidential Candidates…potentially

The 2012 election just finished, and there seems to be a lull in the political dialogue.  But let’s not forget- it’s never too early to start preparing for…2016!  Here are your potential candidates.

GOP:

  1. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie– keynote at the 2012 RNC
  2. Florida Senator Marco Rubio– Cuban American Tea Party Sweetheart
  3. Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan– 2012 VP candidate, has an uncanny resemblance to Squidward from Spongebob Squarepants
  4. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush– the GOP’s voice for the Hispanic voters

Democrats:

  1. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton- Democratic powerhouse, had a brutal primary with Obama in 2008
  2. VP Joe Biden
  3. Senator Elect Elizabeth Warren– the intellectual author of the Occupy Wall Street movement
  4. Newark Major Cory Booker– uses twitter to reach his constituents
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The Obama Kids

President Obama keeps a close lockdown on the privacy of his family, and rightly so, but I’m sure we all want to know just a little bit about his adorable girls.

Malia Ann:

  • born July 4, 1998
  • enjoys soccer, dance, and drama

Sasha:

  • born June 10, 2001
  • enjoys gymnastics, and tap
  • likes pink Nike dunks

Both:

  • enjoy piano and tennis
  • attend Sidwell Friends School in Washington, D.C.
  • like One Direction
  • are fashionistas like their mother
  • may actually be allowed to date


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…And here comes Paul Ryan.

After the election, Paul Ryan has been speaking out.

Some are saying that he should take the blame for not helping Romney win Wisconsin, Ryan’s home state.  Ryan responded that it was an uphill battle the whole way.  Like Republicans everywhere, he was surprised that the race wasn’t closer than they thought.  (Those darn polls.)  He granted that Obama won the urban areas and played the electoral college game well.

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Rasmussen responds to the polling debacle

“We were disappointed that our final results were not as close to the final result as they had been in preceding elections,” says Rasmussen Reports.

Their reasons for this include:

  1. An underestimation of the minority share of the electorate
  2. The generation gap: more young people, less seniors

This year, Obama held an extremely strong presence with the minority vote, with 28% of his voters being non-white.  Romney was known for holding the old white male vote, which, clearly, was not enough this time.  While many people felt that Obama would lose some of the young vote in this election, their numbers were comparable to those of 2008.


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Bad polls let the GOP down

The erroneous polls that I referred to a few posts ago have greatly disillusioned the GOP.  While at the time, the polls encouraged the Republican candidates, they are now facing a loss that they never saw coming.

“On the Republican side, this was the worst cycle ever for polling and there’s nothing that even comes close to it,” said GOP strategist Curt Anderson, who helms the media and polling firm OnMessage. “It was a colossal disaster and it wasn’t confined to the presidential campaign.”

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The beginnings of bipartisanship?

“The best time to work on a bipartisan basis is right after an election,” said Representative Jeb Hensarling of Texas, chairman of the House Republican Conference.

Romney’s proposal for an across the board tax cut, while once ridiculed by President Obama, is now being embraced by Democrats as a potential deficit reduction agreement.  The cap is similar to a previous failed policy by Obama, capping the income tax rate at 28%.


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Regulation on Missouri’s secret money

Remember when I mentioned Todd Akin’s mysterious source of funding a few posts back?  Well, no one has yet to discover the source of money, but Missouri has attempted to create a remedy for the huge and sudden ad dollars.

Missouri’s campaign finance laws have been reformed to avoid hidden campaign contributions.  A common loophole that campaigns have found is that they can create sham non-profits to donate to super PACs and use that money for ads and other campaign materials.  As we saw in Akin’s campaign, no one would disclose where this huge donation of money in the final days of the campaign came from.

“Failing to report donors and concealing donors are both class A misdemeanors subject to one year in jail and a mandatory civil fine against everyone involved with the scam.”

However, these  campaigns got away with it because the Missouri Ethics Commission has a “hands-off approach” and those “non-profits” were acting under legal advice.  The argument is that Missouri should regulate and track donors so that no anonymous donors can be funding campaigns and attack ads.