If all the pollsters are correct, Arizona will mostly stay red for the Presidential and Senate race this election.
Real Clear Politics and the Ramusssan polls have Jeff Flake (R) sweeping his opponent, Richard Carmona (D), with an average poll lead among likely voters by about 5.75 points.
“One of the interesting things about recent polls is that they agree Carmona is at about 45 percent support, which is consistent with the natural Democratic tilt of the state (RCP).”
Romney, who was losing ground in Arizona, enjoys a recent surge among Arizona voters. He has know regained his lead among likely voters in almost all the major polls.
Public Policy Polling places Governor Romney with a 7 point lead over President Obama. Romney maintains an average lead of 7.75 points among likely Arizona voters in both the Real Clear Politics and Ramusssan polls.
I predict that Governor Romney has already locked down Arizona’s 11 electoral points needed to win this election, but Carmona might surprise us in the Senate race. With Arizona’s large population of latino and veteran voters, Carmona is the only candidate that fits both niche markets. However, even with Carmona’s veteran status, veterans typically vote Republican. Flake will most likely retake the already Republican seat in the Senate, but I am not counting out Carmona just yet.
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