Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election


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51 States of America?: Puerto Rico Wants In

November 6th was a crazy day- we saw   a Presidential re-election, new marijuana legalization laws, and Karl Rove lose it on Fox News. Behind all the action however, over a thousand miles away from Washington D.C. a little island in the Atlantic was making it’s voice heard.

For the first time in history, a majority Puerto Rican citizens voted in favor of attaining statehood in a non-binding referendum.

And while this vote may seem minor to those of us living stateside, for Puerto Ricans everywhere this was a historical moment.

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It’s Election Day!: A Tough Colorado Prediction

It’s election day! And though the day has barely begun voting information out of Colorado already shows Obama and Romney in a tight race to win the state.

Voting Breakdown of the 2008 Presidential Election

As expected, Colorado is practically split down the middle with no clear front runner. Both candidates have a strong hold in portions of the state with particular demographics. Like 2008, Obama has a hold in the urban cities of Boulder and Denver, with a 29 point lead over Romney.

Obama loses his lead in more conservative areas like Colorado Springs, which has a high military population. This is where Romney has a lead of approximately 10 points.

This near spilt down the middle is evident by the near polling tie between the two- Obama 48.2 to Romney’s 47.6 percent.

The increase in campaigning has done little to shift the state to either side- Colorado is still a toss up. And though it only has 9 electorate votes to offer, whoever wins Colorado will be able to push themselves closer to a win, especially if they have lost smaller states like Iowa or New Hampshire.

It is clear that Obama’s base momentum in Colorado from 2008 has waned. That election he took Colorado from John McCain with a clear 53%  over 47%. Unfortunately, it is not 2008; tonight’s election results are difficult to predict because of polling and voter ambiguity.

However, if an educated guess what to be made- based on recent polling results- signs are pointing to a possible Obama win in Colorado though it would not be the landslide victory seen in 2008.

We will only know for sure when Colorado polls close tonight at 8 p.m. CST. All results from the West Coast will be compiled by approximately 10 p.m. CST, so until then nothing will be known for sure.

In the meantime, go VOTE! You still have time to make an impact on the direction of our country!


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Colorado Early Voting

With 24 hours to go until the Presidential election are showing a surprising trend is beginning to surface amongst early Colorado voters.

A Summary of 2012 Early Voting Results, Compared to 2008 and 2010 Voting Results.

According to Fox31 Denver, the number of   registered Republicans that have voted early is 2% higher than early voting Democrats. Approximately 1.8 million Coloradans have voted already and with a margin so tight 24 hours before the election, Colorado is further cementing itself as a swing state.

So is this early Republican turn out a sign of things to come?

The Washington Post’s early voting tracker (see left), shows that in 2008, Democrats came out early, beating Republicans by the same margin of 2%. President Obama won Colorado that year, and although the early voting margins are similar, it would be a bit of a jump to say Romney is going to win Colorado.

Though the President is above in Colorado, it is only by a hair. And with the state practically split down the middle (Younger Liberals in Boulder County and Older Conservatives in El Paso County) the outcomes of tomorrows vote are truly up in the air.


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The Clash in Ohio: A Battle Over Senate

Taking a cue from the currently nail bitingly close Presidential election, election battles of the same nature rage across the country. One unique battle that sticks out the Ohio Senate race between incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and Treasuer Josh Mandel.

Sherrod Brown, who has been an Ohio Senator since 2007, is relatively well liked and has a good track record with Ohioans.This year he is challanged by young Ohio Treasurer Madel, who has waged an unrelenting campaign against Brown.

Though he was expected to fizzle out early in the race, Madel has done the opposite, and is “defying political gravity”, surging ahead in his bid for Senate, narrowing the margin between the two.

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Colorado Springs: Catching the World’s Eye

The Colorado Springs Gazette reported yesterday that international news corporation will base its American election coverage in Colorado Springs!!

A downtown snapshot of Colorado Springs, Colorado

This is an incredible thing for the city and El    Paso County (where Colorado Springs is location). With a population hovering just under 700,000, it’s surprising BBC passed on making metropolitan city Denver their election headquarters.

What would influence such a decision?

Well, according to Regan Morris, BBC’s West Coast producer, its the city’s ecclectic nature which attracted the eye of producers.

“We’re looking at the most interesting swing states,” Morris said.

Colorado has stayed in political purgatory for a majority of this election, staying neutral and with occasional leanings toward either candidate.

Rasmussen Reports show that as of October 22nd Romney was a favorite amongst voters, Romney 50% and 46%.

And while the numbers look good for Romney its not time to call it just yet. Colorado is still a Toss-Up, and if history is to be any indicator these polling results will not be permant, as only two weeks ago both men were tied.

Colorado voters- particularly voters in El Paso County- are independent thinkers, which explains why one candidate has not been able to make a complete sweep in the state.

It is this political independence that caught the BBC’s eye.

“We wanted to get out of the big city, and be somewhere interesting, there’s a diverse population there — the military, the religious community. It seems to have an independent streak.”

According to the Gazette, the selection of Colorado Springs shows the importance that El Paso county voters will have in this election.

Due to Hurricane Sandy, campaigning in Colorado has stopped abruptly (the Obama camp cancelled a campaign appearance). With the race 8 days away, and with Colorado leaning Romney, we’ll have to wait and see if Sandy hurt Obama’s chances to win Colorado.

Only 8 days to go! Stay tuned!

 


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Oh Snap!: A Look At Last Night’s Best Debate Zingers

Last night Obama and Romney came out swinging, eager to make their last joint appearance on television a memorable one.

With polls showing a virtual tie in the electorate, both candidates had different goals going into the debate. With Romney wanting to maintain his slight lead  and Obama needing to increase momentum, the fight was on.

Here’s a look as some of last nights best one liners!
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