Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election


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What Happened? : A Swing State Loses Its Impact

Well there it is folks- President Obama was re-elected with 303 electoral votes! Though his win was predicted by some political analyists, his path to re-election did not go as expected . Surprisingly, two of the most talked about battleground states- Colorado and Florida- had little impact on the outcome of the election.

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It’s Election Day!: A Tough Colorado Prediction

It’s election day! And though the day has barely begun voting information out of Colorado already shows Obama and Romney in a tight race to win the state.

Voting Breakdown of the 2008 Presidential Election

As expected, Colorado is practically split down the middle with no clear front runner. Both candidates have a strong hold in portions of the state with particular demographics. Like 2008, Obama has a hold in the urban cities of Boulder and Denver, with a 29 point lead over Romney.

Obama loses his lead in more conservative areas like Colorado Springs, which has a high military population. This is where Romney has a lead of approximately 10 points.

This near spilt down the middle is evident by the near polling tie between the two- Obama 48.2 to Romney’s 47.6 percent.

The increase in campaigning has done little to shift the state to either side- Colorado is still a toss up. And though it only has 9 electorate votes to offer, whoever wins Colorado will be able to push themselves closer to a win, especially if they have lost smaller states like Iowa or New Hampshire.

It is clear that Obama’s base momentum in Colorado from 2008 has waned. That election he took Colorado from John McCain with a clear 53%  over 47%. Unfortunately, it is not 2008; tonight’s election results are difficult to predict because of polling and voter ambiguity.

However, if an educated guess what to be made- based on recent polling results- signs are pointing to a possible Obama win in Colorado though it would not be the landslide victory seen in 2008.

We will only know for sure when Colorado polls close tonight at 8 p.m. CST. All results from the West Coast will be compiled by approximately 10 p.m. CST, so until then nothing will be known for sure.

In the meantime, go VOTE! You still have time to make an impact on the direction of our country!


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Colorado Early Voting

With 24 hours to go until the Presidential election are showing a surprising trend is beginning to surface amongst early Colorado voters.

A Summary of 2012 Early Voting Results, Compared to 2008 and 2010 Voting Results.

According to Fox31 Denver, the number of   registered Republicans that have voted early is 2% higher than early voting Democrats. Approximately 1.8 million Coloradans have voted already and with a margin so tight 24 hours before the election, Colorado is further cementing itself as a swing state.

So is this early Republican turn out a sign of things to come?

The Washington Post’s early voting tracker (see left), shows that in 2008, Democrats came out early, beating Republicans by the same margin of 2%. President Obama won Colorado that year, and although the early voting margins are similar, it would be a bit of a jump to say Romney is going to win Colorado.

Though the President is above in Colorado, it is only by a hair. And with the state practically split down the middle (Younger Liberals in Boulder County and Older Conservatives in El Paso County) the outcomes of tomorrows vote are truly up in the air.


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Colorado District 6- Game On

The 2010 census has completely changed the landscape of many states for the current election. Congressional districts that used to be “safe” for a particular party are now toss-ups, giving both parties the opportunity to pick up seats in the 2012 election.

In Colorado, redistricting has completely opened up a once safe Republican district. Colorado District (CD) 6 used to consist of several counties that leaned heavily Republican. After redistricting, more independents and unaffiliated voters have been placed in the district, making it harder for Republicans to establish a base of support.

Republican Mike Coffman is the incumbent representative for the race, and is still the Republican Party nominee for the general election. His challenger is Democrat Joe Miklosi, who was unopposed in the primaries for the Democratic Party nomination. The race has been declared a toss-up by several analysts, making it extremely valuable to Republicans who wish to maintain control of the House of Representatives after November 6. Continue reading


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Conservative Struggle in Colorado

With Colorado beginning to lean toward Romney, I found an interesting blog post this morning which reflects the internal struggle of Colorado conservatives to make their state Red once more.

This post was written by Michelle Morin on her blog mom4freedom.com. Morin, a conservative, writes on her blog to educate people in how to “take back” our American freedom and support Conservative values.

In this post Morin tells Colorado voters not to forget about their own state during the election. With a democratically controlled state senate, Morin encourages readers to vote for conservative state leaders saying, “our own state can’t take may more liberal policy hits before we see conservatism in this beautiful state as only a memory in the rear view mirror.”

While Morin is certainly on the more intense side of the conservative scale, her post and website offer an insightful look at the political forces at work within Colorado.

Take a look at the post for yourself! Click here.


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20 Days To Go: Colorado Still Undecided

With a little under three weeks till election day, it appears as if the recent Presidential debates have done little to convince Colorado voters to back any one candidate.

Throughout the election year Colorado voters have remained indecisive, with polls fluctuating between both men. As November draws near however the margins between Romney and Obama have become tighter, with current polls showing Romney with a slight edge at 48% over Obama’s 47%.

While initially positive news, Romney’s 1% edge may change as polling results from the recent debate have not yet been released. But if history is any indication, movement from voters towards any one candidate will most likely be slight and not allow a definitive prediction of who will win Colorado in three weeks.

Both candidates reach equally important Colorado demographics, with Romney garnering support from Caucasians, military families and gun owners and Obama being supported by women, Latinos and the lower class.

With every electorate vote counting this election and with no definitive leader in the Rocky Mountain State, both candidates will need to work to the last moment to maintain their base and garner votes from undecided voters who truly wield the power this election.

My prediction? Though Obama carried it in 2008, I think that this year Colorado may go to Romney. Over the past few weeks polls have indicated a consistant, albeit slight, Romney lead. However, independently- minded Colorado voters may change their mind in the next few weeks, so any current predictions must be taken with a grain of salt.

Here’s an opinion piece about the impact the ‘frontier state’ will have during this election. Take a look! Click Here.


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Round 1: A Denver Debate Preview

With Election Day drawing near, a campaign trail milestone approaches: The Presidential Debates.

Battleground state Colorado will host the first debate round, on Wednesday, October 3rd, at Denver University. Jim Lerher, former host of PBS’ NewsHour, will serve as moderator for the debate which will have a domestic policy focus.

In a statement released by the Commission of Presidential Debates Lerher explained that nearly half of the debate would focus on topics surrounding the economy, while the rest would focus on health care, the role of government and governing.

In a state where unemployment is 8.2%, the candidates discussion on the economy will be important to Colorado voters.

With recent polls showing that Obama is beginning to take the lead in battleground states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, the debates provide the candidates an opportunity to appeal to undecided voters

The question is, with Obama beginning to take the lead in this race to the finish, will Romney’s debate performance help or hurt his bid for office?

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