Destination 270

SMU Students Analyze the 2012 Presidential Election

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What Happened? : A Swing State Loses Its Impact

Well there it is folks- President Obama was re-elected with 303 electoral votes! Though his win was predicted by some political analyists, his path to re-election did not go as expected . Surprisingly, two of the most talked about battleground states- Colorado and Florida- had little impact on the outcome of the election.

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It’s Election Day!: A Tough Colorado Prediction

It’s election day! And though the day has barely begun voting information out of Colorado already shows Obama and Romney in a tight race to win the state.

Voting Breakdown of the 2008 Presidential Election

As expected, Colorado is practically split down the middle with no clear front runner. Both candidates have a strong hold in portions of the state with particular demographics. Like 2008, Obama has a hold in the urban cities of Boulder and Denver, with a 29 point lead over Romney.

Obama loses his lead in more conservative areas like Colorado Springs, which has a high military population. This is where Romney has a lead of approximately 10 points.

This near spilt down the middle is evident by the near polling tie between the two- Obama 48.2 to Romney’s 47.6 percent.

The increase in campaigning has done little to shift the state to either side- Colorado is still a toss up. And though it only has 9 electorate votes to offer, whoever wins Colorado will be able to push themselves closer to a win, especially if they have lost smaller states like Iowa or New Hampshire.

It is clear that Obama’s base momentum in Colorado from 2008 has waned. That election he took Colorado from John McCain with a clear 53%  over 47%. Unfortunately, it is not 2008; tonight’s election results are difficult to predict because of polling and voter ambiguity.

However, if an educated guess what to be made- based on recent polling results- signs are pointing to a possible Obama win in Colorado though it would not be the landslide victory seen in 2008.

We will only know for sure when Colorado polls close tonight at 8 p.m. CST. All results from the West Coast will be compiled by approximately 10 p.m. CST, so until then nothing will be known for sure.

In the meantime, go VOTE! You still have time to make an impact on the direction of our country!

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Baldwin Taking the Lead

Polls are showing Democrat Tammy Baldwin leading over Republican Tommy Thompson. If Baldwin wins, she will be the first openly gay United States Senator. Baldwin appeared with Obama at every event, including a Monday rally in her hometown of Madison with rocker Bruce Springsteen that’s certain to attract the biggest crowd of the campaign season.

Their rivals, Romney and  Tommy Thompson, haven’t conceded the state and appeared together Friday at State Fair Park outside Milwaukee.

Baldwin and Thompson are vying to replace longtime Sen. Herb Kohl in a seat held by Democrats since 1957. The winner could help determine which party has majority control of the chamber, and money has poured into the campaign, making it the most expensive Senate race in Wisconsin history.

History is on Baldwin’s side. Wisconsin has not voted for a Republican for president since Ronald Reagan in 1984. And no Democratic Senate candidate on the ballot in a presidential election year has lost since 1980, when Gaylord Nelson was unseated by a Republican wave led by Reagan.

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Colorado Early Voting

With 24 hours to go until the Presidential election are showing a surprising trend is beginning to surface amongst early Colorado voters.

A Summary of 2012 Early Voting Results, Compared to 2008 and 2010 Voting Results.

According to Fox31 Denver, the number of   registered Republicans that have voted early is 2% higher than early voting Democrats. Approximately 1.8 million Coloradans have voted already and with a margin so tight 24 hours before the election, Colorado is further cementing itself as a swing state.

So is this early Republican turn out a sign of things to come?

The Washington Post’s early voting tracker (see left), shows that in 2008, Democrats came out early, beating Republicans by the same margin of 2%. President Obama won Colorado that year, and although the early voting margins are similar, it would be a bit of a jump to say Romney is going to win Colorado.

Though the President is above in Colorado, it is only by a hair. And with the state practically split down the middle (Younger Liberals in Boulder County and Older Conservatives in El Paso County) the outcomes of tomorrows vote are truly up in the air.

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The Clash in Ohio: A Battle Over Senate

Taking a cue from the currently nail bitingly close Presidential election, election battles of the same nature rage across the country. One unique battle that sticks out the Ohio Senate race between incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and Treasuer Josh Mandel.

Sherrod Brown, who has been an Ohio Senator since 2007, is relatively well liked and has a good track record with Ohioans.This year he is challanged by young Ohio Treasurer Madel, who has waged an unrelenting campaign against Brown.

Though he was expected to fizzle out early in the race, Madel has done the opposite, and is “defying political gravity”, surging ahead in his bid for Senate, narrowing the margin between the two.

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Oh Snap!: A Look At Last Night’s Best Debate Zingers

Last night Obama and Romney came out swinging, eager to make their last joint appearance on television a memorable one.

With polls showing a virtual tie in the electorate, both candidates had different goals going into the debate. With Romney wanting to maintain his slight lead  and Obama needing to increase momentum, the fight was on.

Here’s a look as some of last nights best one liners!
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Twenty days out the Minnesota ‘cash cow’ is still blue

Twenty days to go and the polls how Minnesota is leaning heavily towards Obama. FiveThirtyEight is predicting a 96.3% chance Minnesota’s electoral votes will go to President Obama, Politico has Obama at 49.3% compared to Romney at 42%, and the most current PPP poll shows Obama up by 10 percentage points. One exception is a poll by NMB Research that shows Obama with only a 4 percentage point lead, within the margin of error.  However, the poll was funded by the America Future Fund which is a conservative advocacy organization founded by Romney operatives. These results are similar to those from the previous couple of months. There has been little shift in opinion in Minnesota, and this is direct correlation to the lack of campaigning within the state,

Neither candidate is utilizing Minnesota as anything more than a cash cow. Obama has not stepped foot in Minnesota since July. Romney’s last stop was in August. Instead both candidates have sent representatives to rake in the money, like college students coming home for the weekend. Paul Ryan fundraised in Minneapolis last weekend, giving an eleven minute speech and charging $25,000 for a picture and private dinner. Although Ryan, who attended the event with his brother Stan, a Minnesota resident, talked about Minnesota’s likeliness to Wisconsin and harped on his experience in Minnesota as a young boy, the vice presidential nominee did not do any public events, thus, his words fell on the ears of those who are already willing to pay $1,000-$25,000 to hear them. Meanwhile, Jill Biden, wife of Vice President Joe Biden, will kickoff a short fundraising stint in Minneapolis this week, charging $100-$100,000 a seat at a private dinner. She will end up in Duluth at the end of the week. Again, there will be no free public events.

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